Royal LePage: Canadian Home Pricing 2021 Forecast

Royal LePage: Canadian home prices forecast to rise 5.5% by the end of 2021 as low inventory and unmet demand set to fuel price increases:

  • Aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area forecast to rise 5.75%

  • Tech and government sector expansion to drive Ottawa prices up 11.5%

  • Canada’s priciest city to experience 9.0% rise as housing demand in Vancouver surges

  • Halifax and Greater Montreal prices forecast to rise 7.5% and 6.0%, respectively

  • Calgary, Edmonton prices buck regional economic drag, to show modest price growth 

 Housing demand exceeded expectations in the second half of 2020. The supply of homes available for sale failed to keep pace, driving home prices higher and pushing unmet buyer demand into the new year. According to the Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast, the aggregate price of a home in Canada is set to rise 5.5 per cent year-over-year to $746,100 in 2021, with the median price of a two-storey detached house and condominium projected to increase 6.0 per cent and 2.25 per cent to $890,100 and $522,700, respectively.

“The leading indicators we analyze are pointing to a market that favours property sellers in the all-important spring of 2021,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Across the country, a large number of hopeful buyers intent on improving their housing situation were not able to find the home they were looking for this year, as the inventory of properties for sale came nowhere near to meeting surging demand. With policy makers all but promising record low, industry supportive interest rates to continue, we do not see this imbalance improving in the new year. The upward pressure on home prices will continue.

“There was a clear shift towards larger properties and single-family dwellings in 2020, as families repurposed homes to become their office, school classroom, gymnasium and restaurant during the pandemic,” Soper continued. “We expect this trend to moderate as life returns to normal in the months ahead. It is also worth noting, that Canada welcomed a new generation of first-time homeowners this year, encouraged by lower financing costs and softer demand for city centre condominiums. Urban living remains attractive for many.”

The value of single-family houses and homes outside of major urban markets are forecast to continue to outpace city core condominiums in the year ahead, driven both by Canadians seeking larger homes in a time where remote work has become more commonplace, and broad-based demographic trends, including baby-boomer retirement.

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